Buying Time For Nothing

The New York Times is reporting that there is a tentative deal in place for Iran to “temporarily” export “75% of its known stockpile of low-grade nuclear fuel to Russia for additional enrichment.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

“If” Iran Sends Most Of Its Nuclear Fuel Stockpile To Russia, It Would Take A Year To Replenish The Supply. “If Iran actually sends the majority of its stockpile of low-enriched uranium to Russia in a single shipment, as the draft document states, it would have too little fuel on hand to build a nuclear weapon for roughly a year, according to the agency’s experts.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

• The Nuclear Fuel Is Already In “Violation Of Three United Nations Security Council Resolutions.” “Calculations by the International Atomic Energy Agency and outside researchers concluded that it would probably take Iran about a year to replace the 2,600 pounds of fuel with new production, which it is carrying out in violation of three United Nations Security Council resolutions.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

However, “If The 2,600 Pounds Of Fuel Leave Iran In Batches, The Experts Warn, Iran Would Have The Ability To Replace It Almost As Quickly As It Leaves The Country.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

“Also Of Concern Is The Possibility That Iran Might Have More Nuclear Fuel Than It Is Letting On.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

Estimates Of Iran’s Stockpile Are Based On Iran’s Declaration Of How Much Nuclear Fuel It Has. “The estimate that Iran has about 3,500 pounds of low-enriched uranium ‘assumes that Iran has accurately declared how much fuel it possesses, and does not have a secret supply,’ as one senior European diplomat put it on the sidelines of negotiations here.”  (David E. Sanger, “Iran Agrees To Draft Of Deal On Exporting Nuclear Fuel,” The New York Times, 10/21/09)

Other than President Obama taking credit for “accomplishing” something through engagement with Iran, what would this deal actually achieve, other than buy Iran more time? Notice the key words in the deal… “temporary,” “if” and “known stockpile?” In other words, Iran will ship 75% of its low-grade nuclear fuel that is known about and will only do so temporarily. And so what do we get in return?